Following Dr. Pimentel’s detailed calculations in finding
the ERoEI of ethanol, I would like to suggest a similarly rigorous analysis of
the ERoEI of oil. As oil becomes scarcer, both the direct cost of extraction and
the indirect cost of defending and securing the geographical areas that are oil
abundant increases.
Here I will argue
that the current calculation of oil’s ERoEI grossly overestimates its true net
energy balance.
Dr. Pimentel estimates the current ERoEI of corn-ethanol as 0.8. In comparison, current calculations of the
ERoEI of oil reveal an impressive ratio of 3:1.
Of course, this number is miniscule in comparison to the 1940’s when
only 1 barrel of oil was required to extract 50 – 100 barrels of oil. The
reason for the gradual decrease in oil’s ERoEI has been the increasing amount
of energy needed to be used to extract an increasingly scarce natural resource. However these calculations only take into
account the technology and manpower directly required to discover, mine, process,
and transport oil. They do not take
into account the costs incurred in securing and defending access to oil fields
that are becoming more and more highly contested.
Though this is controversial, today much of the US’s
foreign policy initiative is directed towards securing our oil interests in the
Middle East. The government expenses on just the Iraq
war have exceeded over 400 billion dollars. In addition, Linda Bilmes of Harvard University, states that if the war
continues for another 5 years the total cost will amount to 1.4 trillion dollars.
Though it is debatable how much of this money is directly used to secure oil
interests, should we include this entire amount in the calculations of the
ERoEI of oil? Should we include the 82 billion dollars spent on the first gulf
war defending the oil fields in Kuwait?
In
addition, China
is emerging as a major oil consumer and military superpower. Could the future bring us a major direct or
indirect conflict with China
over oil? Should we take the costs of
such a conflict into account when discussing energy alternatives?
Dr. Pimentel has provided us with a very in depth analysis
of the energy balance associated with the production and transport of ethanol. Estimation of the true cost of oil may benefit
from a similarly in depth analysis that takes into account the political and
military costs of our addiction.